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Arbroath vs Partick Thistle Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Regular Season - 35 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Arbroath

PPG 1.82 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Partick Thistle

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-18.3%0-24.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.2%1-112.3%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.1%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.1%3-14.5%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 30.3% 3.30 +52.1%

Draw 25.9% 30.8% 3.25 -15.8%

Away win 28.0% 48.1% 2.08 -41.8%

Over 2.5 47.7% 47.6% 2.10 +0.2%

Over 3.5 26.0% 27.0% 3.70 -3.8%

BTTS 51.5% 55.6% 1.80 -7.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.5%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arbroath1.5

Partick Thistle1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ARBROATH · PPG 1.82

PARTICK THISTLE · PPG 1.35

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.82) > Away AVERAGE (1.35)

Win probability 1X2

Arbroath (H) 46.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +52.1%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.8%

Partick Thistle (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -41.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arbroath face Partick Thistle in Scotland - Championship on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arbroath a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Partick Thistle 28%, so Arbroath are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Arbroath and 1.1 for Partick Thistle (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arbroath are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.35 for Partick Thistle. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +52.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Arbroath vs Partick Thistle Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - Championship Predictions