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Arbroath vs Partick Thistle Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Scotland - Championship logo Scotland flag Scotland - Championship Regular Season - 35 Gayfield Park· Arbroath Saturday, April 25, 2026 14:00
Arbroath logo Arbroath PPG 1.82
0-0 MISS
Partick Thistle logo Partick Thistle PPG 1.35
Home· +52.1% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Arbroath face Partick Thistle in Scotland - Championship on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arbroath a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Partick Thistle 28%, so Arbroath are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Arbroath and 1.1 for Partick Thistle (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arbroath are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.35 for Partick Thistle. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +52.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 46.1%
Odds: 3.30 EV: +52.1%
Draw 25.9%
Odds: 3.25 EV: -15.8%
Away 28.0%
Odds: 2.08 EV: -41.8%
Model lean: BTTS
Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.7% Odds: 2.10 +0.2%
Over 3.5 26.0% Odds: 3.70 -3.8%
BTTS 51.5% Odds: 1.80 -7.3%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 1-0
3rd 2-1
4th 2-0
5th 0-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Arbroath
1.48
Partick Thistle
1.10

Model Suggestion

BTTS -7.3% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.82) > Away AVERAGE (1.35)

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