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Partick Thistle vs Queens Park Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Regular Season - 36 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 18:45

Partick Thistle

PPG 2.41 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Queens Park

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-17.3%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.5%1-111.7%1-25.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.4%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.8%3-15.1%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 67.6% 1.48 -21.6%

Draw 28.5% 24.4% 4.10 +16.9%

Away win 18.6% 16.9% 5.90 +9.7%

Over 2.5 45.1% 58.8% 1.70 -23.3%

Over 3.5 23.8% 36.4% 2.75 -34.5%

BTTS 48.3% 55.6% 1.80 -13.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.3%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.7%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 2–0 10.8%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Partick Thistle1.6

Queens Park0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PARTICK THISTLE · PPG 2.41

QUEENS PARK · PPG 1.06

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.41) vs P(Home)=53.0%

Win probability 1X2

Partick Thistle (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -21.6%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +16.9%

Queens Park (A) 18.6%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV +9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Partick Thistle face Queens Park in Scotland - Championship on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Partick Thistle a 53% chance, the draw 28% and Queens Park 19%, so Partick Thistle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Partick Thistle and 0.9 for Queens Park (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Partick Thistle are averaging 2.41 points per game versus 1.06 for Queens Park. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +16.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Partick Thistle vs Queens Park Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - Championship Predictions