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Ross County vs Greenock Morton Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Regular Season - 35 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Ross County

PPG 1.06 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

Greenock Morton

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-19.3%0-24.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.4%1-112.8%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.5%2-18.8%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.9%3-14.0%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 50.5% 1.98 -11.7%

Draw 27.2% 30.3% 3.30 -10.2%

Away win 28.2% 28.2% 3.55 +0.1%

Over 2.5 43.0% 51.8% 1.93 -17.0%

Over 3.5 22.1% 29.9% 3.35 -26.0%

BTTS 47.9% 57.8% 1.73 -17.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.9%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 0–1 9.3%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ross County1.4

Greenock Morton1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSS COUNTY · PPG 1.06

GREENOCK MORTON · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Ross County (H) 44.6%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -11.7%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.2%

Greenock Morton (A) 28.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ross County face Greenock Morton in Scotland - Championship on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ross County a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Greenock Morton 28%, so Ross County are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ross County and 1.0 for Greenock Morton (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ross County are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.88 for Greenock Morton. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 4-0.

Ross County vs Greenock Morton Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - Championship Predictions