Dunfermline vs Arbroath Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Scotland - Championship Regular Season - 36 East End Park· Dunfermline Friday, May 1, 2026 18:45

Dunfermline PPG 1.47

0-0 HIT CS2

Arbroath PPG 1.12

Over2.5· -3.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Dunfermline face Arbroath in Scotland - Championship on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dunfermline a 43% chance, the draw 31% and Arbroath 27%, so Dunfermline are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dunfermline and 1.1 for Arbroath (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dunfermline are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.12 for Arbroath. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 42.5%

Odds: 2.18 EV: -7.3%

Draw 30.5%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -5.5%

Away 27.0%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -13.6%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 44.9% Odds: 2.15 -3.5%

Over 3.5 23.6% Odds: 3.95 -6.8%

BTTS 51.5% Odds: 1.83 -5.8%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✔

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Dunfermline

1.40

Arbroath

1.07

Model SuggestionBTTS -5.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -5.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

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Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away AVERAGE (1.12)