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Dunfermline vs Arbroath Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Regular Season - 36 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 18:45

Dunfermline

PPG 1.47 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Arbroath

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-19.1%0-24.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.8%1-112.7%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-18.9%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.9%3-14.1%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 45.9% 2.18 -7.3%

Draw 30.5% 32.3% 3.10 -5.5%

Away win 27.0% 31.3% 3.20 -13.6%

Over 2.5 44.9% 46.5% 2.15 -3.5%

Over 3.5 23.6% 25.3% 3.95 -6.8%

BTTS 51.5% 54.6% 1.83 -5.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.5%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 45% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0✓ 8.4%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dunfermline1.4

Arbroath1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.9% · O3.5 PROB 23.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNFERMLINE · PPG 1.47

ARBROATH · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away AVERAGE (1.12)

Win probability 1X2

Dunfermline (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -7.3%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.5%

Arbroath (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dunfermline face Arbroath in Scotland - Championship on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dunfermline a 43% chance, the draw 31% and Arbroath 27%, so Dunfermline are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dunfermline and 1.1 for Arbroath (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dunfermline are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.12 for Arbroath. This match finished 0-0.

Dunfermline vs Arbroath Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - Championship Predictions