Ayr Utd vs St. Johnstone Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Scotland - Championship Regular Season - 36 Somerset Park· Ayr Friday, May 1, 2026 18:45

Ayr Utd PPG 1.12

0-1 HIT CS2

St. Johnstone PPG 2.06

Draw· +6.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Ayr Utd face St. Johnstone in Scotland - Championship on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ayr Utd a 21% chance, the draw 30% and St. Johnstone 49%, so St. Johnstone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Ayr Utd and 1.5 for St. Johnstone (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ayr Utd are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 2.06 for St. Johnstone. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 21.2%

Odds: 4.40 EV: -6.7%

Draw 29.5%

Odds: 3.60 EV: +6.2%

Away 49.3%

Odds: 1.71 EV: -15.7%

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 44.2% Odds: 1.80 -20.4%

Over 3.5 23.1% Odds: 2.95 -31.9%

BTTS 49.0% Odds: 1.70 -16.7%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-1 ✔

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Ayr Utd

0.93

St. Johnstone

1.52

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs Home AVERAGE (1.12)