Today / Scotland - Championship / Ayr Utd vs St. Johnstone

Ayr Utd vs St. Johnstone Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Regular Season - 36 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 18:45

Ayr Utd

PPG 1.12 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

St. Johnstone

PPG 2.06 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-113.2%0-210.0%0-35.1%0-4+2.7%1 1-08.0%1-112.2%1-29.3%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-03.7%2-15.6%2-24.3%2-32.2%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.1%3-11.7%3-21.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.2% 22.7% 4.40 -6.7%

Draw 29.5% 27.8% 3.60 +6.2%

Away win 49.3% 58.5% 1.71 -15.7%

Over 2.5 44.2% 55.6% 1.80 -20.4%

Over 3.5 23.1% 33.9% 2.95 -31.9%

BTTS 49.0% 58.8% 1.70 -16.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob49.0%

A 49% / xG 0.9-1.5 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1✓ 13.2%

#3 0–0 8.7%

#4 0–2 10.0%

#5 1–2 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ayr Utd0.9

St. Johnstone1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.2% · O3.5 PROB 23.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AYR UTD · PPG 1.12

ST. JOHNSTONE · PPG 2.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs Home AVERAGE (1.12)

Win probability 1X2

Ayr Utd (H) 21.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -6.7%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +6.2%

St. Johnstone (A) 49.3%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ayr Utd face St. Johnstone in Scotland - Championship on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ayr Utd a 21% chance, the draw 30% and St. Johnstone 49%, so St. Johnstone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Ayr Utd and 1.5 for St. Johnstone (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ayr Utd are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 2.06 for St. Johnstone. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Ayr Utd vs St. Johnstone Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - Championship Predictions