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Ghazl El M. vs Wadi Degla Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Monday, April 13, 2026

Ghazl El M.

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Wadi Degla

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.8%0-116.0%0-27.6%0-32.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-014.0%1-113.3%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-05.8%2-15.5%2-22.6%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.6%3-11.5%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.3% 23.0% 4.35 +31.8%

Draw 33.0% 37.0% 2.70 -10.9%

Away win 36.7% 49.0% 2.04 -25.1%

Over 2.5 26.5% 33.9% 2.95 -21.8%

Over 3.5 10.6% 16.7% 6.00 -36.4%

BTTS 34.7% 43.5% 2.30 -20.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob34.7%

D 33% / xG 0.8-1.0 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.8%

#2 0–1 16.0%

#3 1–0 14.0%

#4 1–1 13.3%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ghazl El M.0.8

Wadi Degla1.0

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 26.5% · O3.5 PROB 10.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GHAZL EL M. · PPG 1.25

WADI DEGLA · PPG 1.55

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.25) vs Away GOOD (1.55)

Win probability 1X2

Ghazl El M. (H) 30.3%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV +31.8%

Draw 33.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -10.9%

Wadi Degla (A) 36.7%

ODDS 2.04 · IMPLIED 49.0% EV -25.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ghazl El M. face Wadi Degla in Egypt - Premier League on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ghazl El M. a 30% chance, the draw 33% and Wadi Degla 37%, so Wadi Degla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Ghazl El M. and 1.0 for Wadi Degla (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 27% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ghazl El M. are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.55 for Wadi Degla. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.8%.

Ghazl El M. vs Wadi Degla Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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