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Weston-s.-Mare vs Horsham Prediction— England - National League - South

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:45

Weston-s.-Mare

PPG 2.10 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Horsham

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-18.7%0-23.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.9%1-112.1%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-18.4%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.5%3-13.9%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 61.7% 1.62 -13.7%

Draw 27.6% 27.0% 3.70 +2.1%

Away win 19.2% 21.1% 4.75 -8.8%

Over 2.5 35.4% 54.1% 1.85 -34.5%

Over 3.5 16.4% 31.3% 3.20 -47.5%

BTTS 38.5% 54.6% 1.83 -29.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob38.5%

H 53% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 16.9%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 0–0 12.1%

#4 2–0 11.8%

#5 0–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Weston-s.-Mare1.4

Horsham0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.4% · O3.5 PROB 16.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTON-S.-MARE · PPG 2.10

HORSHAM · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.10) vs P(Home)=53.3%

Win probability 1X2

Weston-s.-Mare (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -13.7%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +2.1%

Horsham (A) 19.2%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Weston-s.-Mare face Horsham in England - National League - South on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Weston-s.-Mare a 53% chance, the draw 28% and Horsham 19%, so Weston-s.-Mare are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Weston-s.-Mare and 0.7 for Horsham (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Weston-s.-Mare are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.29 for Horsham. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Weston-s.-Mare vs Horsham Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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