Weston-s.-Mare vs Horsham Prediction— England - National League - South

England - National League - South Tuesday, April 14, 2026 18:45

Weston-s.-Mare PPG 2.10

1-0 HIT MostLikelyScore

Horsham PPG 1.29

Draw· +2.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Weston-s.-Mare face Horsham in England - National League - South on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Weston-s.-Mare a 53% chance, the draw 28% and Horsham 19%, so Weston-s.-Mare are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Weston-s.-Mare and 0.7 for Horsham (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Weston-s.-Mare are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.29 for Horsham. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 53.3%

Odds: 1.62 EV: -13.7%

Draw 27.6%

Odds: 3.70 EV: +2.1%

Away 19.2%

Odds: 4.75 EV: -8.8%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 35.4% Odds: 1.85 -34.5%

Over 3.5 16.4% Odds: 3.20 -47.5%

BTTS 38.5% Odds: 1.83 -29.5%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✔

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Weston-s.-Mare

1.40

Horsham

0.72

Model SuggestionHome -13.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -13.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+2.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5/Under 70%

BTTS/No 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 26.0%

Bet Hit 73% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.10) vs P(Home)=53.3%