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Slough Town vs Dagenham e R. Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Slough Town

PPG 1.32 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Dagenham e R.

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.6%0-24.2%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.7%1-110.0%1-27.5%1-33.8%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.9%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.5%3-15.3%3-24.0%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.5%4+-22.7%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 38.5% 2.60 +15.4%

Draw 22.9% 29.0% 3.45 -21.0%

Away win 32.8% 42.9% 2.33 -23.6%

Over 2.5 63.7% 65.4% 1.53 -2.5%

Over 3.5 41.6% 43.5% 2.30 -4.3%

BTTS 64.7% 70.4% 1.42 -8.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.7%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 1–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slough Town1.8

Dagenham e R.1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SLOUGH TOWN · PPG 1.32

DAGENHAM E R. · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.32), Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Slough Town (H) 44.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +15.4%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -21.0%

Dagenham e R. (A) 32.8%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -23.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slough Town face Dagenham e R. in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slough Town a 44% chance, the draw 23% and Dagenham e R. 33%, so Slough Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Slough Town and 1.5 for Dagenham e R. (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slough Town are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.18 for Dagenham e R.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Slough Town vs Dagenham e R. Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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