Hemel Hempstead vs Salisbury Prediction— England - National League - South

England - National League - South South - 46 Focus Community Arena· Hemel Hempstead, Hertfordshire Saturday, April 25, 2026 11:30

Hemel Hempstead PPG 1.95

1-1 HIT CS3

Salisbury PPG 0.68

Draw· +5.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Hemel Hempstead face Salisbury in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hemel Hempstead a 60% chance, the draw 25% and Salisbury 15%, so Hemel Hempstead are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hemel Hempstead and 0.7 for Salisbury (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hemel Hempstead are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 0.68 for Salisbury. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 59.6%

Odds: 1.44 EV: -14.2%

Draw 25.1%

Odds: 4.20 EV: +5.4%

Away 15.3%

Odds: 6.00 EV: -8.2%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 38.5% Odds: 1.62 -37.6%

Over 3.5 18.7% Odds: 2.55 -52.3%

BTTS 38.1% Odds: 1.73 -34.1%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✔

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Hemel Hempstead

1.57

Salisbury

0.66

Model SuggestionHome -14.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -14.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+5.4%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.95) vs P(Home)=59.6%