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Hemel Hempstead vs Salisbury Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Hemel Hempstead

PPG 1.95 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Salisbury

PPG 0.68 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-17.0%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.9%1-111.1%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.3%2-18.7%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.0%3-14.6%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-12.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.6% 69.4% 1.44 -14.2%

Draw 25.1% 23.8% 4.20 +5.4%

Away win 15.3% 16.7% 6.00 -8.2%

Over 2.5 38.5% 61.7% 1.62 -37.6%

Over 3.5 18.7% 39.2% 2.55 -52.3%

BTTS 38.1% 57.8% 1.73 -34.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob38.1%

H 60% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.9%

#2 2–0 13.3%

#3 1–1✓ 11.1%

#4 0–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hemel Hempstead1.6

Salisbury0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HEMEL HEMPSTEAD · PPG 1.95

SALISBURY · PPG 0.68

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.95) vs P(Home)=59.6%

Win probability 1X2

Hemel Hempstead (H) 59.6%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -14.2%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +5.4%

Salisbury (A) 15.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hemel Hempstead face Salisbury in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hemel Hempstead a 60% chance, the draw 25% and Salisbury 15%, so Hemel Hempstead are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hemel Hempstead and 0.7 for Salisbury (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hemel Hempstead are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 0.68 for Salisbury. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Hemel Hempstead vs Salisbury Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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