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Tonbridge vs Torquay Utd Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Tonbridge

PPG 1.27 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Torquay Utd

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 66.5% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-15.5%0-24.4%0-32.4%0-4+1.4%1 1-06.0%1-19.7%1-27.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.3%2-18.5%2-26.9%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.1%3-15.0%3-24.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.3%4+-22.7%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.6% 23.1% 4.33 +80.1%

Draw 22.6% 25.6% 3.90 -11.9%

Away win 35.7% 61.0% 1.64 -41.4%

Over 2.5 65.8% 66.7% 1.50 -1.3%

Over 3.5 43.9% 45.5% 2.20 -3.4%

BTTS 66.5% 67.6% 1.48 -1.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob66.5%

H 42% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2✓ 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 1–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tonbridge1.8

Torquay Utd1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TONBRIDGE · PPG 1.27

TORQUAY UTD · PPG 1.36

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.27), Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Tonbridge (H) 41.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +80.1%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -11.9%

Torquay Utd (A) 35.7%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -41.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tonbridge face Torquay Utd in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tonbridge a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Torquay Utd 36%, so Tonbridge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Tonbridge and 1.6 for Torquay Utd (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tonbridge are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.36 for Torquay Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +80.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Tonbridge vs Torquay Utd Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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