Tonbridge vs Torquay Utd Prediction— England - National League - South

England - National League - South South - 46 Longmead Stadium· Tonbridge, Kent Saturday, April 25, 2026 11:30

Tonbridge PPG 1.27

1-2 HIT CS3

Torquay Utd PPG 1.36

Home· +80.1% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Tonbridge face Torquay Utd in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tonbridge a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Torquay Utd 36%, so Tonbridge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Tonbridge and 1.6 for Torquay Utd (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tonbridge are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.36 for Torquay Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +80.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 41.6%

Odds: 4.33 EV: +80.1%

Draw 22.6%

Odds: 3.90 EV: -11.9%

Away 35.7%

Odds: 1.64 EV: -41.4%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 65.8% Odds: 1.50 -1.3%

Over 3.5 43.9% Odds: 2.20 -3.4%

BTTS 66.5% Odds: 1.48 -1.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✔

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Tonbridge

1.77

Torquay Utd

1.62

Model SuggestionBTTS -1.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -1.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+80.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.27), Away AVERAGE (1.36)