AFC Totton vs Farnborough Prediction— England - National League - South

England - National League - South South - 46 Snows Stadium· Totton, Hampshire Saturday, April 25, 2026 11:30

AFC Totton PPG 2.09

1-6 MISS

Farnborough PPG 0.86

Home· +15.1% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Totton face Farnborough in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Totton a 62% chance, the draw 18% and Farnborough 20%, so AFC Totton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for AFC Totton and 1.4 for Farnborough (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Totton are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 0.86 for Farnborough. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.1%. This match finished 1-6.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 62.2%

Odds: 1.85 EV: +15.1%

Draw 18.1%

Odds: 3.85 EV: -30.3%

Away 19.7%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -36.0%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 75.1% Odds: 1.42 +6.6%

Over 3.5 55.2% Odds: 2.05 +13.2%

BTTS 69.2% Odds: 1.38 -4.5%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 3-1 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 2-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

AFC Totton

2.53

Farnborough

1.39

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +6.6% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Home(+15.1%)

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.09) vs P(Home)=62.2%