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AFC Totton vs Farnborough Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

AFC Totton

PPG 2.09 · HOME

1 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Farnborough

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.8%0-21.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.0%1-17.0%1-24.8%1-32.2%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.3%2-18.8%2-26.1%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.3%3-17.4%3-25.2%3-32.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-18.6%4+-26.0%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.2% 54.1% 1.85 +15.1%

Draw 18.1% 26.0% 3.85 -30.3%

Away win 19.7% 30.8% 3.25 -36.0%

Over 2.5 75.1% 70.4% 1.42 +6.6%

Over 3.5 55.2% 48.8% 2.05 +13.2%

BTTS 69.2% 72.5% 1.38 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-6

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob69.2%

H 62% / xG 2.5-1.4 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 3–1 7.4%

#3 1–1 7.0%

#4 2–0 6.3%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Totton2.5

Farnborough1.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.1% · O3.5 PROB 55.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC TOTTON · PPG 2.09

FARNBOROUGH · PPG 0.86

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.09) vs P(Home)=62.2%

Win probability 1X2

AFC Totton (H) 62.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +15.1%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -30.3%

Farnborough (A) 19.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -36.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Totton face Farnborough in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Totton a 62% chance, the draw 18% and Farnborough 20%, so AFC Totton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for AFC Totton and 1.4 for Farnborough (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Totton are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 0.86 for Farnborough. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.1%. This match finished 1-6.

AFC Totton vs Farnborough Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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