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Horsham vs Chippenham Prediction— England - National League - South

England - National League - South logo England flag England - National League - South South - 46 The Fusion Aviation Community Stadium· Horsham Saturday, April 25, 2026 11:30
Horsham logo Horsham PPG 1.32
3-2 MISS
Chippenham logo Chippenham PPG 0.32
Home· +35.7% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Horsham face Chippenham in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Horsham a 62% chance, the draw 23% and Chippenham 16%, so Horsham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Horsham and 0.8 for Chippenham (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Horsham are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 0.32 for Chippenham. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +35.7%. This match finished 3-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 61.7%
Odds: 2.20 EV: +35.7%
Draw 22.6%
Odds: 3.25 EV: -26.6%
Away 15.7%
Odds: 3.00 EV: -52.9%
Model lean: Home
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.6% Odds: 1.67 -20.5%
Over 3.5 25.9% Odds: 2.62 -32.1%
BTTS 45.1% Odds: 1.50 -32.4%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0
2nd 2-0
3rd 1-1
4th 2-1
5th 0-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Horsham
1.80
Chippenham
0.78

Model Suggestion

Home +35.7% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.32) vs P(Home)=61.7%

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