Today / England - National League - South / Horsham vs Chippenham

Horsham vs Chippenham Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Horsham

PPG 1.32 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Chippenham

PPG 0.32 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+35.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-15.9%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.7%1-110.6%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.6%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.4%3-15.7%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-13.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.7% 45.5% 2.20 +35.7%

Draw 22.6% 30.8% 3.25 -26.6%

Away win 15.7% 33.3% 3.00 -52.9%

Over 2.5 47.6% 59.9% 1.67 -20.5%

Over 3.5 25.9% 38.2% 2.62 -32.1%

BTTS 45.1% 66.7% 1.50 -32.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.1%

H 62% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.7%

#2 2–0 12.3%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Horsham1.8

Chippenham0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HORSHAM · PPG 1.32

CHIPPENHAM · PPG 0.32

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.32) vs P(Home)=61.7%

Win probability 1X2

Horsham (H) 61.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +35.7%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -26.6%

Chippenham (A) 15.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -52.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Horsham face Chippenham in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Horsham a 62% chance, the draw 23% and Chippenham 16%, so Horsham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Horsham and 0.8 for Chippenham (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Horsham are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 0.32 for Chippenham. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +35.7%. This match finished 3-2.

Horsham vs Chippenham Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - National League - South Predictions