Dover Athletic vs Chesham Utd Prediction— England - National League - South

England - National League - South South - 46 Crabble Athletic Ground· Dover, Kent Saturday, April 25, 2026 11:30

Dover Athletic PPG 1.09

2-2 MISS

Chesham Utd PPG 1.45

Home· +53.3% ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Dover Athletic face Chesham Utd in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dover Athletic a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Chesham Utd 39%, so Chesham Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dover Athletic and 1.5 for Chesham Utd (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dover Athletic are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.45 for Chesham Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +53.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 36.5%

Odds: 4.20 EV: +53.3%

Draw 24.6%

Odds: 3.80 EV: -6.5%

Away 38.9%

Odds: 1.67 EV: -35.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 56.0% Odds: 1.50 -16.0%

Over 3.5 33.6% Odds: 2.20 -26.1%

BTTS 59.0% Odds: 1.45 -14.4%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Dover Athletic

1.44

Chesham Utd

1.49

Model SuggestionBTTS -14.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -14.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+53.3%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.09) vs Away AVERAGE (1.45)