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Dover Athletic vs Chesham Utd Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Dover Athletic

PPG 1.09 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chesham Utd

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-18.0%0-26.0%0-33.0%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.7%1-111.5%1-28.5%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.5%2-18.2%2-26.1%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.6%3-13.9%3-22.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 23.8% 4.20 +53.3%

Draw 24.6% 26.3% 3.80 -6.5%

Away win 38.9% 59.9% 1.67 -35.0%

Over 2.5 56.0% 66.7% 1.50 -16.0%

Over 3.5 33.6% 45.5% 2.20 -26.1%

BTTS 59.0% 69.0% 1.45 -14.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.0%

A 39% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–1 8.0%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dover Athletic1.4

Chesham Utd1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DOVER ATHLETIC · PPG 1.09

CHESHAM UTD · PPG 1.45

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.09) vs Away AVERAGE (1.45)

Win probability 1X2

Dover Athletic (H) 36.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +53.3%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.5%

Chesham Utd (A) 38.9%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -35.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dover Athletic face Chesham Utd in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dover Athletic a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Chesham Utd 39%, so Chesham Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dover Athletic and 1.5 for Chesham Utd (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dover Athletic are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.45 for Chesham Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +53.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Dover Athletic vs Chesham Utd Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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