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Chelmsford City vs Eastbourne Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Chelmsford City

PPG 1.73 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Eastbourne

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 77.2% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.0%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.9%1-15.7%1-22.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.7%2-18.4%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.5%3-18.2%3-24.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-012.8%4+-112.4%4+-26.0%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.2% 74.1% 1.35 +4.2%

Draw 13.4% 20.8% 4.80 -35.7%

Away win 9.4% 14.8% 6.75 -36.5%

Over 2.5 74.7% 71.4% 1.40 +4.6%

Over 3.5 54.7% 50.0% 2.00 +9.4%

BTTS 58.8% 63.7% 1.57 -7.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 80%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.8%

H 77% / xG 2.9-1.0 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 8.7%

#2 3–0 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 3–1 8.2%

#5 4–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chelmsford City2.9

Eastbourne1.0

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.7% · O3.5 PROB 54.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHELMSFORD CITY · PPG 1.73

EASTBOURNE · PPG 0.77

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.73), Away POOR (0.77) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Chelmsford City (H) 77.2%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV +4.2%

Draw 13.4%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -35.7%

Eastbourne (A) 9.4%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV -36.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chelmsford City face Eastbourne in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chelmsford City a 77% chance, the draw 13% and Eastbourne 9%, so Chelmsford City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Chelmsford City and 1.0 for Eastbourne (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chelmsford City are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.77 for Eastbourne. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.4%. This match finished 1-3.

Chelmsford City vs Eastbourne Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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