Hornchurch vs Maidenhead Utd Prediction— England - National League - South

England - National League - South South - 46 Hornchurch Stadium· London Saturday, April 25, 2026 11:30

Hornchurch PPG 1.91

0-0 MISS

Maidenhead Utd PPG 1.41

Home· +5.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Hornchurch face Maidenhead Utd in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hornchurch a 42% chance, the draw 26% and Maidenhead Utd 32%, so Hornchurch are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hornchurch and 1.2 for Maidenhead Utd (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hornchurch are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.41 for Maidenhead Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 42.3%

Odds: 2.50 EV: +5.8%

Draw 25.9%

Odds: 3.40 EV: -11.9%

Away 31.8%

Odds: 2.50 EV: -20.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 49.4% Odds: 1.77 -12.6%

Over 3.5 27.5% Odds: 2.95 -18.9%

BTTS 53.6% Odds: 1.60 -14.2%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Hornchurch

1.44

Maidenhead Utd

1.21

Model SuggestionBTTS -14.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -14.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+5.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5/Under 70%

BTTS/No 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 26.0%

Bet Hit 73% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.91) > Away AVERAGE (1.41)