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Hornchurch vs Maidenhead Utd Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Hornchurch

PPG 1.91 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Maidenhead Utd

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-18.6%0-25.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.2%1-112.3%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-18.9%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.5%3-14.2%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.3% 40.0% 2.50 +5.8%

Draw 25.9% 29.4% 3.40 -11.9%

Away win 31.8% 40.0% 2.50 -20.5%

Over 2.5 49.4% 56.5% 1.77 -12.6%

Over 3.5 27.5% 33.9% 2.95 -18.9%

BTTS 53.6% 62.5% 1.60 -14.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.6%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 0–1 8.6%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hornchurch1.4

Maidenhead Utd1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.4% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HORNCHURCH · PPG 1.91

MAIDENHEAD UTD · PPG 1.41

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.91) > Away AVERAGE (1.41)

Win probability 1X2

Hornchurch (H) 42.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +5.8%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.9%

Maidenhead Utd (A) 31.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -20.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hornchurch face Maidenhead Utd in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hornchurch a 42% chance, the draw 26% and Maidenhead Utd 32%, so Hornchurch are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hornchurch and 1.2 for Maidenhead Utd (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hornchurch are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.41 for Maidenhead Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Hornchurch vs Maidenhead Utd Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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