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Bath City vs Maidstone Utd Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Bath City

PPG 1.14 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Maidstone Utd

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-111.9%0-28.8%0-34.4%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.4%1-112.4%1-29.2%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.3%2-16.4%2-24.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.5%3-12.2%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.6% 15.6% 6.40 +70.2%

Draw 26.1% 24.4% 4.10 +7.0%

Away win 47.3% 69.4% 1.44 -31.9%

Over 2.5 46.2% 58.8% 1.70 -21.5%

Over 3.5 24.7% 36.4% 2.75 -32.1%

BTTS 50.0% 54.6% 1.83 -8.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob50.0%

A 47% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 11.9%

#3 1–2 9.2%

#4 0–2 8.8%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bath City1.0

Maidstone Utd1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 24.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BATH CITY · PPG 1.14

MAIDSTONE UTD · PPG 1.27

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.14), Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Bath City (H) 26.6%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +70.2%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +7.0%

Maidstone Utd (A) 47.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -31.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bath City face Maidstone Utd in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bath City a 27% chance, the draw 26% and Maidstone Utd 47%, so Maidstone Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Bath City and 1.5 for Maidstone Utd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bath City are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.27 for Maidstone Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +70.2%. This match finished 2-3.

Bath City vs Maidstone Utd Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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