Hornchurch vs Chelmsford City Prediction— England - National League - South

England - National League - South Tuesday, April 14, 2026 18:45

Hornchurch PPG 1.95

3-3 MISS

Chelmsford City PPG 1.48

Over3.5· +19.4% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Hornchurch face Chelmsford City in England - National League - South on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hornchurch a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Chelmsford City 26%, so Hornchurch are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Hornchurch and 1.4 for Chelmsford City (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hornchurch are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 1.48 for Chelmsford City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.4%. This match finished 3-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 52.4%

Odds: 2.25 EV: +17.9%

Draw 21.6%

Odds: 3.35 EV: -27.6%

Away 26.0%

Odds: 2.85 EV: -25.9%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 65.4% Odds: 1.73 +13.1%

Over 3.5 43.4% Odds: 2.75 +19.4%

BTTS 64.4% Odds: 1.57 +1.1%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 2-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Hornchurch

2.00

Chelmsford City

1.36

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +13.1% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+19.4%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5/Under 70%

BTTS/No 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 26.0%

Bet Hit 73% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.95) > Away AVERAGE (1.48)