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Hornchurch vs Chelmsford City Prediction— England - National League - South

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:45

Hornchurch

PPG 1.95 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Chelmsford City

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+13.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.7%0-23.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.9%1-19.4%1-26.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.6%3-16.3%3-24.3%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-15.0%4+-23.4%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 44.4% 2.25 +17.9%

Draw 21.6% 29.9% 3.35 -27.6%

Away win 26.0% 35.1% 2.85 -25.9%

Over 2.5 65.4% 57.8% 1.73 +13.1%

Over 3.5 43.4% 36.4% 2.75 +19.4%

BTTS 64.4% 63.7% 1.57 +1.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob64.4%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 6.9%

#4 1–0 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hornchurch2.0

Chelmsford City1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HORNCHURCH · PPG 1.95

CHELMSFORD CITY · PPG 1.48

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.95) > Away AVERAGE (1.48)

Win probability 1X2

Hornchurch (H) 52.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +17.9%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -27.6%

Chelmsford City (A) 26.0%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hornchurch face Chelmsford City in England - National League - South on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hornchurch a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Chelmsford City 26%, so Hornchurch are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Hornchurch and 1.4 for Chelmsford City (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hornchurch are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 1.48 for Chelmsford City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.4%. This match finished 3-3.

Hornchurch vs Chelmsford City Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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