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AFC Totton vs Bath City Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 32 ·Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:45

AFC Totton

PPG 2.05 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Bath City

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+13.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.6%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.4%1-19.6%1-24.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.7%3-16.9%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-15.7%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.5% 54.1% 1.85 +13.8%

Draw 20.6% 28.2% 3.55 -26.9%

Away win 17.9% 27.8% 3.60 -35.6%

Over 2.5 59.8% 58.8% 1.70 +1.7%

Over 3.5 37.4% 36.4% 2.75 +2.9%

BTTS 56.0% 62.5% 1.60 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob56.0%

H 62% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 9.9%

#2 2–0 9.7%

#3 1–1 9.6%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Totton2.1

Bath City1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC TOTTON · PPG 2.05

BATH CITY · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.05) vs P(Home)=61.5%

Win probability 1X2

AFC Totton (H) 61.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +13.8%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -26.9%

Bath City (A) 17.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -35.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Totton face Bath City in England - National League - South on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Totton a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Bath City 18%, so AFC Totton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for AFC Totton and 1.0 for Bath City (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Totton are averaging 2.05 points per game versus 0.71 for Bath City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.8%. This match finished 2-1.

AFC Totton vs Bath City Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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