Today / England - National League - North / South Shields vs Macclesfield

South Shields vs Macclesfield Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 31 ·Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:45

South Shields

PPG 2.43 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Macclesfield

PPG 1.76 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+30.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.0%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.4%1-17.5%1-23.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.4%2-19.4%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.7%3-17.8%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.8%4+-18.8%4+-24.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.2% 55.6% 1.80 +30.0%

Draw 16.3% 27.4% 3.65 -40.5%

Away win 11.5% 27.0% 3.70 -57.5%

Over 2.5 65.9% 66.7% 1.50 -1.1%

Over 3.5 44.0% 45.5% 2.20 -3.2%

BTTS 54.4% 69.0% 1.45 -21.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.4%

H 72% / xG 2.5-0.9 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 3–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Shields2.5

Macclesfield0.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH SHIELDS · PPG 2.43

MACCLESFIELD · PPG 1.76

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.43) > Away GOOD (1.76)

Win probability 1X2

South Shields (H) 72.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +30.0%

Draw 16.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -40.5%

Macclesfield (A) 11.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -57.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Shields face Macclesfield in England - National League - North on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Shields a 72% chance, the draw 16% and Macclesfield 12%, so South Shields are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for South Shields and 0.9 for Macclesfield (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Shields are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 1.76 for Macclesfield. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.0%. This match finished 4-1.

South Shields vs Macclesfield Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - National League - North Predictions