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Darlington vs Oxford City Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Darlington

PPG 1.45 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Oxford City

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.2%0-23.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.6%1-110.1%1-25.9%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.5%3-16.4%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.9%4+-22.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 52.6% 1.90 +5.8%

Draw 21.9% 27.4% 3.65 -20.1%

Away win 22.4% 30.3% 3.30 -26.1%

Over 2.5 60.3% 65.4% 1.53 -7.7%

Over 3.5 37.9% 43.5% 2.30 -12.8%

BTTS 59.1% 69.0% 1.45 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.1%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 1–0 8.6%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Darlington2.0

Oxford City1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DARLINGTON · PPG 1.45

OXFORD CITY · PPG 0.95

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.45) > Away POOR (0.95)

Win probability 1X2

Darlington (H) 55.7%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +5.8%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -20.1%

Oxford City (A) 22.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -26.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Darlington face Oxford City in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Darlington a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Oxford City 22%, so Darlington are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Darlington and 1.2 for Oxford City (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Darlington are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.95 for Oxford City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 1-3.

Darlington vs Oxford City Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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