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Kidderminster vs South Shields Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Kidderminster

PPG 2.09 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

South Shields

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-19.9%0-27.5%0-33.8%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.0%1-112.0%1-29.1%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.8%2-17.3%2-25.5%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.0%3-12.9%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.5% 39.2% 2.55 -22.2%

Draw 25.4% 27.8% 3.60 -8.6%

Away win 44.1% 43.5% 2.30 +1.4%

Over 2.5 51.2% 59.9% 1.67 -14.5%

Over 3.5 29.1% 37.0% 2.70 -21.4%

BTTS 54.8% 64.5% 1.55 -15.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.8%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 0–1 9.9%

#3 1–2 9.1%

#4 1–0✓ 8.0%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kidderminster1.2

South Shields1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KIDDERMINSTER · PPG 2.09

SOUTH SHIELDS · PPG 1.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.09), Away GOOD (1.82)

Win probability 1X2

Kidderminster (H) 30.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -22.2%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.6%

South Shields (A) 44.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kidderminster face South Shields in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kidderminster a 31% chance, the draw 25% and South Shields 44%, so South Shields are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Kidderminster and 1.5 for South Shields (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kidderminster are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 1.82 for South Shields. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Kidderminster vs South Shields Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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