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Chester vs Kings Lynn Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Chester

PPG 1.59 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kings Lynn

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.1%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.3%1-111.6%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.5%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.6%3-15.2%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 54.6% 1.83 -9.8%

Draw 24.5% 28.2% 3.55 -13.0%

Away win 26.2% 26.7% 3.75 -1.8%

Over 2.5 52.4% 54.1% 1.85 -3.1%

Over 3.5 30.2% 31.3% 3.20 -3.4%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 0–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chester1.6

Kings Lynn1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.4% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CHESTER · PPG 1.59

KINGS LYNN · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.59) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Chester (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -9.8%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -13.0%

Kings Lynn (A) 26.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chester face Kings Lynn in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chester a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Kings Lynn 26%, so Chester are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Chester and 1.1 for Kings Lynn (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chester are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.18 for Kings Lynn. This match finished 0-0.

Chester vs Kings Lynn Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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