Today / England - National League - North / Hereford Utd vs Peterborough S.

Hereford Utd vs Peterborough S. Prediction— England - National League - North

North · Matchday 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Hereford Utd

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Peterborough S.

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.4%0-22.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.9%1-18.1%1-24.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.1%2-19.5%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.4%3-17.5%3-24.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-17.7%4+-24.5%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.6% 76.9% 1.30 -17.3%

Draw 18.7% 20.8% 4.80 -10.2%

Away win 17.7% 12.2% 8.20 +45.1%

Over 2.5 68.5% 69.0% 1.45 -0.7%

Over 3.5 47.1% 46.5% 2.15 +1.3%

BTTS 62.6% 59.9% 1.67 +4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.6%

H 64% / xG 2.4-1.2 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 2–0 8.1%

#3 1–1 8.1%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 1–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hereford Utd2.4

Peterborough S.1.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.5% · O3.5 PROB 47.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HEREFORD UTD · PPG 1.36

PETERBOROUGH S. · PPG 0.64

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

69%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.36) > Away POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

Hereford Utd (H) 63.6%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -17.3%

Draw 18.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -10.2%

Peterborough S. (A) 17.7%

ODDS 8.20 · IMPLIED 12.2% EV +45.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hereford Utd face Peterborough S. in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hereford Utd a 64% chance, the draw 19% and Peterborough S. 18%, so Hereford Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Hereford Utd and 1.2 for Peterborough S. (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hereford Utd are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.64 for Peterborough S.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +45.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Hereford Utd vs Peterborough S. Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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