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Merthyr Town vs AFC Fylde Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Merthyr Town

PPG 1.45 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

AFC Fylde

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 81.6% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1% — a clear edge.

+10.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-13.3%0-24.6%0-34.2%0-4+5.7%1 1-02.0%1-15.5%1-27.6%1-37.0%1-4+9.4%2 2-01.7%2-14.6%2-26.3%2-35.8%2-4+7.8%3 3-00.9%3-12.5%3-23.5%3-33.2%3-4+4.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.5%4+-22.1%4+-31.9%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.8% 18.2% 5.50 +19.9%

Draw 17.4% 22.7% 4.40 -23.4%

Away win 60.7% 69.4% 1.44 -12.6%

Over 2.5 81.6% 74.1% 1.35 +10.2%

Over 3.5 64.3% 54.1% 1.85 +19.0%

BTTS 75.8% 70.4% 1.42 +7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob75.8%

A 61% / xG 1.7-2.8 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 76%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.6%

#2 1–3 7.0%

#3 2–2 6.3%

#4 2–3 5.8%

#5 1–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Merthyr Town1.7

AFC Fylde2.8

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.6% · O3.5 PROB 64.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MERTHYR TOWN · PPG 1.45

AFC FYLDE · PPG 1.86

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.45) vs Away GOOD (1.86)

Win probability 1X2

Merthyr Town (H) 21.8%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +19.9%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -23.4%

AFC Fylde (A) 60.7%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Merthyr Town face AFC Fylde in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Merthyr Town a 22% chance, the draw 17% and AFC Fylde 61%, so AFC Fylde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Merthyr Town and 2.8 for AFC Fylde (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 76% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Merthyr Town are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.86 for AFC Fylde. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.9%. This match finished 2-4.

Merthyr Town vs AFC Fylde Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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