Merthyr Town vs AFC Fylde Prediction— England - National League - North

England - National League - North North - 46 Penydarren Park· Merthyr Tydfil Saturday, April 25, 2026 11:30

Merthyr Town PPG 1.45

2-4 MISS

AFC Fylde PPG 1.86

Home· +19.9% ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Merthyr Town face AFC Fylde in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Merthyr Town a 22% chance, the draw 17% and AFC Fylde 61%, so AFC Fylde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Merthyr Town and 2.8 for AFC Fylde (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 76% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Merthyr Town are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.86 for AFC Fylde. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.9%. This match finished 2-4.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 21.8%

Odds: 5.50 EV: +19.9%

Draw 17.4%

Odds: 4.40 EV: -23.4%

Away 60.7%

Odds: 1.44 EV: -12.6%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 81.6% Odds: 1.35 +10.2%

Over 3.5 64.3% Odds: 1.85 +19.0%

BTTS 75.8% Odds: 1.42 +7.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-2 ✘

2nd 1-3 ✘

3rd 2-2 ✘

4th 2-3 ✘

5th 1-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Merthyr Town

1.66

AFC Fylde

2.75

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +10.2% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Home(+19.9%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5/Under 66%

BTTS/No 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 5.4%

Bet Hit 67% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.45) vs Away GOOD (1.86)