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Buxton vs Leamington Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Buxton

PPG 1.32 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Leamington

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-12.6%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.1%1-16.8%1-22.5%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.9%2-18.9%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.4%3-17.7%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-012.6%4+-19.4%4+-23.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.3% 85.5% 1.17 -9.6%

Draw 14.4% 18.2% 5.50 -20.8%

Away win 8.3% 5.9% 17.00 +41.1%

Over 2.5 65.1% 69.0% 1.45 -5.6%

Over 3.5 43.1% 46.5% 2.15 -7.3%

BTTS 48.6% 47.6% 2.10 +2.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.6%

H 77% / xG 2.6-0.7 / O2.5 65% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 3–0 10.4%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Buxton2.6

Leamington0.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BUXTON · PPG 1.32

LEAMINGTON · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.32), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Buxton (H) 77.3%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -9.6%

Draw 14.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -20.8%

Leamington (A) 8.3%

ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV +41.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Buxton face Leamington in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buxton a 77% chance, the draw 14% and Leamington 8%, so Buxton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Buxton and 0.7 for Leamington (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buxton are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 0.50 for Leamington. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +41.1%. This match finished 4-1.

Buxton vs Leamington Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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