Buxton vs Leamington Prediction— England - National League - North

England - National League - North North - 46 The Tarmac Silverlands Stadium· Buxton, Derbyshire Saturday, April 25, 2026 11:30

Buxton PPG 1.32

4-1 MISS

Leamington PPG 0.50

Away· +41.1% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Buxton face Leamington in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buxton a 77% chance, the draw 14% and Leamington 8%, so Buxton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Buxton and 0.7 for Leamington (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buxton are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 0.50 for Leamington. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +41.1%. This match finished 4-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 77.3%

Odds: 1.17 EV: -9.6%

Draw 14.4%

Odds: 5.50 EV: -20.8%

Away 8.3%

Odds: 17.00 EV: +41.1%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 65.1% Odds: 1.45 -5.6%

Over 3.5 43.1% Odds: 2.15 -7.3%

BTTS 48.6% Odds: 2.10 +2.1%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 3-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Buxton

2.61

Leamington

0.74

Model SuggestionHome -9.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -9.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+41.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5/Under 66%

BTTS/No 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 5.4%

Bet Hit 67% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.32), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus