Alfreton Town vs Curzon Prediction— England - National League - North

England - National League - North North - 46 The Impact Arena· Alfreton, Derbyshire Saturday, April 25, 2026 11:30

Alfreton Town PPG 1.41

3-3 MISS

Curzon PPG 1.18

Away· +14.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Alfreton Town face Curzon in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alfreton Town a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Curzon 40%, so Curzon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Alfreton Town and 1.6 for Curzon (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alfreton Town are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.18 for Curzon. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.0%. This match finished 3-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 35.8%

Odds: 2.10 EV: -24.8%

Draw 24.2%

Odds: 3.65 EV: -11.7%

Away 40.0%

Odds: 2.85 EV: +14.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 58.2% Odds: 1.67 -2.8%

Over 3.5 35.8% Odds: 2.70 -3.3%

BTTS 60.7% Odds: 1.57 -4.7%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Alfreton Town

1.46

Curzon

1.56

Model SuggestionBTTS -4.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -4.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+14.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.41), Away AVERAGE (1.18)