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Alfreton Town vs Curzon Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Alfreton Town

PPG 1.41 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Curzon

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-17.6%0-25.9%0-33.1%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.1%1-111.1%1-28.7%1-34.5%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.1%2-26.3%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.5%3-14.0%3-23.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 47.6% 2.10 -24.8%

Draw 24.2% 27.4% 3.65 -11.7%

Away win 40.0% 35.1% 2.85 +14.0%

Over 2.5 58.2% 59.9% 1.67 -2.8%

Over 3.5 35.8% 37.0% 2.70 -3.3%

BTTS 60.7% 63.7% 1.57 -4.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob60.7%

A 40% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–1 7.6%

#5 1–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alfreton Town1.5

Curzon1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.2% · O3.5 PROB 35.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ALFRETON TOWN · PPG 1.41

CURZON · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.41), Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Alfreton Town (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -24.8%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -11.7%

Curzon (A) 40.0%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alfreton Town face Curzon in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alfreton Town a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Curzon 40%, so Curzon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Alfreton Town and 1.6 for Curzon (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alfreton Town are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.18 for Curzon. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.0%. This match finished 3-3.

Alfreton Town vs Curzon Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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