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Radcliffe vs Macclesfield Prediction— England - National League - North

North · Matchday 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Radcliffe

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Macclesfield

PPG 1.68 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 70% chance

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 77.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a clear edge.

+15.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.7%0-24.1%0-32.9%0-4+2.6%1 1-03.3%1-17.1%1-27.7%1-35.6%1-4+5.0%2 2-03.1%2-16.7%2-27.3%2-35.3%2-4+4.7%3 3-01.9%3-14.2%3-24.6%3-33.3%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-13.1%4+-23.3%4+-32.4%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% 30.3% 3.30 +13.9%

Draw 20.4% 27.4% 3.65 -25.5%

Away win 45.2% 52.4% 1.91 -13.7%

Over 2.5 77.1% 66.7% 1.50 +15.7%

Over 3.5 57.9% 43.5% 2.30 +33.2%

BTTS 75.2% 69.4% 1.44 +8.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob75.2%

A 45% / xG 1.9-2.2 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 75%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.7%

#2 2–2 7.3%

#3 1–1 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.7%

#5 1–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Radcliffe1.9

Macclesfield2.2

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.1% · O3.5 PROB 57.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RADCLIFFE · PPG 1.32

MACCLESFIELD · PPG 1.68

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

70%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.32) vs Away GOOD (1.68)

Win probability 1X2

Radcliffe (H) 34.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +13.9%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -25.5%

Macclesfield (A) 45.2%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Radcliffe face Macclesfield in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Radcliffe a 35% chance, the draw 20% and Macclesfield 45%, so Macclesfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Radcliffe and 2.2 for Macclesfield (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 75% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Radcliffe are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.68 for Macclesfield. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Radcliffe vs Macclesfield Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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