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Bedford Town vs Scarborough Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Bedford Town

PPG 1.32 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Scarborough

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-19.0%0-26.7%0-33.3%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.0%1-111.9%1-28.8%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.3%2-17.8%2-25.8%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.3%3-13.4%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.6% 33.3% 3.00 +0.8%

Draw 25.2% 38.5% 2.60 -34.5%

Away win 41.2% 38.2% 2.62 +7.9%

Over 2.5 53.1% 54.1% 1.85 -1.8%

Over 3.5 30.8% 34.7% 2.88 -11.3%

BTTS 56.6% 64.5% 1.55 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob56.6%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.9%

#2 0–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 8.8%

#4 1–0 8.0%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bedford Town1.3

Scarborough1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BEDFORD TOWN · PPG 1.32

SCARBOROUGH · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.32), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Bedford Town (H) 33.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +0.8%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -34.5%

Scarborough (A) 41.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bedford Town face Scarborough in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bedford Town a 34% chance, the draw 25% and Scarborough 41%, so Scarborough are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Bedford Town and 1.5 for Scarborough (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bedford Town are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.50 for Scarborough. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Bedford Town vs Scarborough Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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