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Chorley vs Worksop Town Prediction— England - National League - North

North · Matchday 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Chorley

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Worksop Town

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-16.0%0-23.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.7%1-110.7%1-26.6%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.9%2-19.6%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.7%3-15.8%3-23.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.9%4+-22.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 50.0% 2.00 +1.6%

Draw 23.1% 28.6% 3.50 -19.1%

Away win 26.1% 31.3% 3.20 -16.5%

Over 2.5 58.2% 54.1% 1.85 +7.7%

Over 3.5 35.8% 31.3% 3.20 +14.6%

BTTS 59.0% 58.8% 1.70 +0.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.0%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1✓ 9.6%

#3 1–0 8.7%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chorley1.8

Worksop Town1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.2% · O3.5 PROB 35.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHORLEY · PPG 1.59

WORKSOP TOWN · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.59) > Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Chorley (H) 50.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +1.6%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -19.1%

Worksop Town (A) 26.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chorley face Worksop Town in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chorley a 51% chance, the draw 23% and Worksop Town 26%, so Chorley are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Chorley and 1.2 for Worksop Town (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chorley are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.14 for Worksop Town. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Chorley vs Worksop Town Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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