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Marine vs Merthyr Town Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 41 ·Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:45

Marine

PPG 1.62 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Merthyr Town

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a clear edge.

+15.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-14.0%0-23.6%0-32.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-04.4%1-18.0%1-27.3%1-34.4%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.4%2-18.0%2-27.3%2-34.4%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.9%3-15.3%3-24.8%3-32.9%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-14.2%4+-23.8%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.1% 45.5% 2.20 -5.2%

Draw 21.2% 28.2% 3.55 -24.7%

Away win 35.7% 35.7% 2.80 -0.0%

Over 2.5 73.3% 63.7% 1.57 +15.1%

Over 3.5 52.9% 40.8% 2.45 +29.6%

BTTS 72.4% 69.0% 1.45 +5.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob72.4%

H 43% / xG 2.0-1.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.0%

#2 1–1 8.0%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 1–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marine2.0

Merthyr Town1.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.3% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MARINE · PPG 1.62

MERTHYR TOWN · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.62), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Marine (H) 43.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -5.2%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -24.7%

Merthyr Town (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marine face Merthyr Town in England - National League - North on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marine a 43% chance, the draw 21% and Merthyr Town 36%, so Marine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Marine and 1.8 for Merthyr Town (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marine are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.67 for Merthyr Town. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Marine vs Merthyr Town Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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