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Alfreton Town vs Buxton Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 31 ·Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:45

Alfreton Town

PPG 1.43 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Buxton

PPG 1.76 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 51.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-113.2%0-210.1%0-35.2%0-4+2.8%1 1-07.9%1-112.1%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-03.6%2-15.6%2-24.3%2-32.2%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.1%3-11.7%3-21.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.6% 23.1% 4.33 -2.1%

Draw 25.7% 26.7% 3.75 -3.6%

Away win 51.7% 59.9% 1.67 -13.7%

Over 2.5 44.5% 57.8% 1.73 -23.0%

Over 3.5 23.4% 35.1% 2.85 -33.3%

BTTS 47.2% 58.8% 1.70 -19.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob47.2%

A 52% / xG 0.9-1.5 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.2%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 0–2 10.1%

#4 1–2 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alfreton Town0.9

Buxton1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ALFRETON TOWN · PPG 1.43

BUXTON · PPG 1.76

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.43) vs Away GOOD (1.76)

Win probability 1X2

Alfreton Town (H) 22.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -2.1%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -3.6%

Buxton (A) 51.7%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alfreton Town face Buxton in England - National League - North on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alfreton Town a 23% chance, the draw 26% and Buxton 52%, so Buxton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Alfreton Town and 1.5 for Buxton (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alfreton Town are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.76 for Buxton. This match finished 2-2.

Alfreton Town vs Buxton Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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