Alfreton Town vs Buxton Prediction— England - National League - North

England - National League - North North - 31 The Impact Arena· Alfreton, Derbyshire Tuesday, April 14, 2026 18:45

Alfreton Town PPG 1.43

2-2 MISS

Buxton PPG 1.76

Home· -2.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Alfreton Town face Buxton in England - National League - North on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alfreton Town a 23% chance, the draw 26% and Buxton 52%, so Buxton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Alfreton Town and 1.5 for Buxton (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alfreton Town are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.76 for Buxton. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 22.6%

Odds: 4.33 EV: -2.1%

Draw 25.7%

Odds: 3.75 EV: -3.6%

Away 51.7%

Odds: 1.67 EV: -13.7%

Model lean: Away Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 44.5% Odds: 1.73 -23.0%

Over 3.5 23.4% Odds: 2.85 -33.3%

BTTS 47.2% Odds: 1.70 -19.8%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 0-2 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Alfreton Town

0.92

Buxton

1.54

Model SuggestionAway -13.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Away, but EV is -13.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5/Under 66%

BTTS/No 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 5.4%

Bet Hit 67% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.43) vs Away GOOD (1.76)