Today / England - National League / Wealdstone vs Boston Utd

Wealdstone vs Boston Utd Prediction— England - National League

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:45

Wealdstone

PPG 1.76 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Boston Utd

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+13.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.6%0-23.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.6%1-19.2%1-26.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.5%3-16.3%3-24.4%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.1%4+-23.6%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 47.6% 2.10 +8.8%

Draw 21.5% 29.0% 3.45 -25.8%

Away win 26.7% 33.3% 3.00 -19.9%

Over 2.5 66.5% 58.8% 1.70 +13.1%

Over 3.5 44.7% 36.4% 2.75 +22.9%

BTTS 65.5% 64.5% 1.55 +1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob65.5%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1✓ 9.2%

#3 2–0 6.6%

#4 1–0 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wealdstone2.0

Boston Utd1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.5% · O3.5 PROB 44.7%

Form & verdict PPG

WEALDSTONE · PPG 1.76

BOSTON UTD · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.76) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Wealdstone (H) 51.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +8.8%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -25.8%

Boston Utd (A) 26.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wealdstone face Boston Utd in England - National League on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wealdstone a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Boston Utd 27%, so Wealdstone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Wealdstone and 1.4 for Boston Utd (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wealdstone are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 1.33 for Boston Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Wealdstone vs Boston Utd Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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