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Carlisle Utd vs Brackley Town Prediction— England - National League

Regular Season - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Carlisle Utd

PPG 2.14 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Brackley Town

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 80.3% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-12.4%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.0%1-16.3%1-22.0%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.3%2-18.3%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.7%3-17.3%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-014.6%4+-19.2%4+-22.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 80.3% 74.1% 1.35 +8.4%

Draw 13.2% 22.7% 4.40 -41.9%

Away win 6.5% 13.2% 7.60 -50.6%

Over 2.5 63.4% 65.4% 1.53 -3.0%

Over 3.5 41.3% 43.5% 2.30 -5.0%

BTTS 43.2% 57.8% 1.73 -25.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.2%

H 80% / xG 2.6-0.6 / O2.5 63% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.3%

#2 3–0✓ 11.7%

#3 1–0 10.0%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 4–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carlisle Utd2.6

Brackley Town0.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CARLISLE UTD · PPG 2.14

BRACKLEY TOWN · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.14), Away POOR (0.64) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Carlisle Utd (H) 80.3%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV +8.4%

Draw 13.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -41.9%

Brackley Town (A) 6.5%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV -50.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carlisle Utd face Brackley Town in England - National League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carlisle Utd a 80% chance, the draw 13% and Brackley Town 7%, so Carlisle Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Carlisle Utd and 0.6 for Brackley Town (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carlisle Utd are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.64 for Brackley Town. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.4%. This match finished 3-0.

Carlisle Utd vs Brackley Town Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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