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Tamworth vs Braintree Town Prediction— England - National League

Regular Season - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Tamworth

PPG 1.59 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Braintree Town

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-16.2%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.3%1-110.8%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.4%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.3%3-15.5%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.1% 59.9% 1.67 +2.0%

Draw 23.1% 26.3% 3.80 -12.2%

Away win 15.8% 23.8% 4.20 -33.6%

Over 2.5 45.8% 66.7% 1.50 -31.3%

Over 3.5 24.4% 45.5% 2.20 -46.3%

BTTS 43.9% 67.6% 1.48 -35.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.9%

H 61% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.3%

#2 2–0 12.5%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tamworth1.8

Braintree Town0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 24.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMWORTH · PPG 1.59

BRAINTREE TOWN · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.59) vs P(Home)=61.1%

Win probability 1X2

Tamworth (H) 61.1%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +2.0%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.2%

Braintree Town (A) 15.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -33.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tamworth face Braintree Town in England - National League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tamworth a 61% chance, the draw 23% and Braintree Town 16%, so Tamworth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Tamworth and 0.8 for Braintree Town (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tamworth are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 0.64 for Braintree Town. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 5-1.

Tamworth vs Braintree Town Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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