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Southend Utd vs Wealdstone Prediction— England - National League

Regular Season - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Southend Utd

PPG 1.95 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Wealdstone

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-13.3%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.1%1-17.9%1-23.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.5%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.8%3-17.6%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-18.2%4+-23.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.6% 67.6% 1.48 +6.0%

Draw 16.8% 25.0% 4.00 -32.8%

Away win 11.6% 17.2% 5.80 -32.7%

Over 2.5 63.7% 66.7% 1.50 -4.5%

Over 3.5 41.6% 45.5% 2.20 -8.5%

BTTS 52.7% 63.7% 1.57 -17.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 72% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 2–1✓ 9.5%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 3–0 8.8%

#5 1–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Southend Utd2.4

Wealdstone0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTHEND UTD · PPG 1.95

WEALDSTONE · PPG 0.77

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.95), Away POOR (0.77) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Southend Utd (H) 71.6%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV +6.0%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -32.8%

Wealdstone (A) 11.6%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -32.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Southend Utd face Wealdstone in England - National League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Southend Utd a 72% chance, the draw 17% and Wealdstone 12%, so Southend Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Southend Utd and 0.9 for Wealdstone (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Southend Utd are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 0.77 for Wealdstone. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Southend Utd vs Wealdstone Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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