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Boston Utd vs Hartlepool Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Boston Utd

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Hartlepool

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-19.9%0-25.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.9%1-113.0%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.8%2-18.5%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.4%3-13.7%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.5% 48.8% 2.05 -14.9%

Draw 27.5% 29.9% 3.35 -7.9%

Away win 31.0% 30.8% 3.25 +0.8%

Over 2.5 42.9% 57.1% 1.75 -24.9%

Over 3.5 22.0% 35.7% 2.80 -38.4%

BTTS 48.4% 63.7% 1.57 -24.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.4%

H 42% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 0–1 9.9%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boston Utd1.3

Hartlepool1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.9% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BOSTON UTD · PPG 1.09

HARTLEPOOL · PPG 1.41

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

48%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.09) vs Away AVERAGE (1.41)

Win probability 1X2

Boston Utd (H) 41.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -14.9%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -7.9%

Hartlepool (A) 31.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boston Utd face Hartlepool in England - National League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boston Utd a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Hartlepool 31%, so Boston Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Boston Utd and 1.1 for Hartlepool (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boston Utd are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.41 for Hartlepool. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Boston Utd vs Hartlepool Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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