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Scunthorpe vs Eastleigh Prediction— England - National League

Regular Season - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Scunthorpe

PPG 1.91 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Eastleigh

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a clear edge.

+21.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.2%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.6%1-17.7%1-23.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.4%2-19.5%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-17.8%3-24.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-18.6%4+-24.4%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.9% 56.5% 1.77 +21.9%

Draw 17.3% 28.2% 3.55 -38.6%

Away win 13.8% 25.3% 3.95 -45.5%

Over 2.5 67.4% 63.7% 1.57 +5.8%

Over 3.5 45.8% 42.0% 2.38 +9.0%

BTTS 58.4% 66.7% 1.50 -12.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.4%

H 69% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 2–0 9.4%

#3 3–1 7.8%

#4 1–1 7.7%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Scunthorpe2.5

Eastleigh1.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SCUNTHORPE · PPG 1.91

EASTLEIGH · PPG 0.91

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.91), Away POOR (0.91) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Scunthorpe (H) 68.9%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV +21.9%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -38.6%

Eastleigh (A) 13.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -45.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Scunthorpe face Eastleigh in England - National League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Scunthorpe a 69% chance, the draw 17% and Eastleigh 14%, so Scunthorpe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Scunthorpe and 1.0 for Eastleigh (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Scunthorpe are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.91 for Eastleigh. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Scunthorpe vs Eastleigh Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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