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Altrincham vs Gateshead FC Prediction— England - National League

Regular Season - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Altrincham

PPG 1.68 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gateshead FC

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.4% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+24.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-15.7%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.1%1-110.6%1-25.6%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.9%3-16.1%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.4%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.4% 45.5% 2.20 +24.1%

Draw 22.5% 28.6% 3.50 -21.3%

Away win 21.0% 35.7% 2.80 -41.2%

Over 2.5 55.7% 65.4% 1.53 -14.8%

Over 3.5 33.3% 43.5% 2.30 -23.4%

BTTS 54.9% 70.4% 1.42 -22.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.9%

H 56% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 3–1✓ 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Altrincham1.9

Gateshead FC1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.7% · O3.5 PROB 33.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTRINCHAM · PPG 1.68

GATESHEAD FC · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.68) > Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Altrincham (H) 56.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +24.1%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -21.3%

Gateshead FC (A) 21.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -41.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Altrincham face Gateshead FC in England - National League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Altrincham a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Gateshead FC 21%, so Altrincham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Altrincham and 1.0 for Gateshead FC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Altrincham are averaging 1.68 points per game versus 1.27 for Gateshead FC. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.1%. This match finished 3-1.

Altrincham vs Gateshead FC Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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