Rochdale vs York City Prediction— England - National League

England - National League Regular Season - 46 Spotland Stadium· Rochdale Saturday, April 25, 2026 11:30

Rochdale PPG 2.50

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

York City PPG 2.36

Home· -2.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Rochdale face York City in England - National League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rochdale a 38% chance, the draw 26% and York City 36%, so Rochdale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rochdale and 1.4 for York City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rochdale are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.36 for York City. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.1%

Odds: 2.55 EV: -2.9%

Draw 25.5%

Odds: 3.35 EV: -14.6%

Away 36.4%

Odds: 2.45 EV: -10.8%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.1% Odds: 1.75 -8.8%

Over 3.5 29.9% Odds: 2.85 -14.8%

BTTS 56.0% Odds: 1.57 -12.1%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Rochdale

1.40

York City

1.36

Model SuggestionBTTS -12.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -12.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.50), Away EXCELLENT (2.36)