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Rochdale vs York City Prediction— England - National League

Regular Season - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Rochdale

PPG 2.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

York City

PPG 2.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-18.6%0-25.9%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.8%1-112.0%1-28.2%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.2%2-18.4%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.9%3-13.9%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.1% 39.2% 2.55 -2.9%

Draw 25.5% 29.9% 3.35 -14.6%

Away win 36.4% 40.8% 2.45 -10.8%

Over 2.5 52.1% 57.1% 1.75 -8.8%

Over 3.5 29.9% 35.1% 2.85 -14.8%

BTTS 56.0% 63.7% 1.57 -12.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob56.0%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.0%

#2 1–0 8.8%

#3 0–1 8.6%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 1–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rochdale1.4

York City1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ROCHDALE · PPG 2.50

YORK CITY · PPG 2.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.50), Away EXCELLENT (2.36)

Win probability 1X2

Rochdale (H) 38.1%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -2.9%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -14.6%

York City (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rochdale face York City in England - National League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rochdale a 38% chance, the draw 26% and York City 36%, so Rochdale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rochdale and 1.4 for York City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rochdale are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.36 for York City. This match finished 1-1.

Rochdale vs York City Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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