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Forest Green vs Morecambe Prediction— England - National League

Regular Season - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Forest Green

PPG 2.14 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Morecambe

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.6% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.5%0-20.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.6%1-14.8%1-22.6%1-30.9%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.3%2-17.7%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-18.2%3-24.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-013.6%4+-114.5%4+-27.7%4+-32.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 78.7% 75.2% 1.33 +4.7%

Draw 12.3% 20.0% 5.00 -38.5%

Away win 9.0% 13.9% 7.20 -35.2%

Over 2.5 79.6% 75.2% 1.33 +5.9%

Over 3.5 61.3% 54.6% 1.83 +12.2%

BTTS 62.7% 66.7% 1.50 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.7%

H 79% / xG 3.2-1.1 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 7.7%

#3 3–0 7.7%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 4–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Forest Green3.2

Morecambe1.1

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.6% · O3.5 PROB 61.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FOREST GREEN · PPG 2.14

MORECAMBE · PPG 0.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.14), Away POOR (0.91) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Forest Green (H) 78.7%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV +4.7%

Draw 12.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -38.5%

Morecambe (A) 9.0%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV -35.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Forest Green face Morecambe in England - National League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Forest Green a 79% chance, the draw 12% and Morecambe 9%, so Forest Green are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Forest Green and 1.1 for Morecambe (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Forest Green are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.91 for Morecambe. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.2%. This match finished 5-0.

Forest Green vs Morecambe Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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