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Boreham Wood vs Sutton Utd Prediction— England - National League

Regular Season - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Boreham Wood

PPG 2.27 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sutton Utd

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 76.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a clear edge.

+10.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-11.9%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.6%1-15.6%1-22.8%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.3%2-18.3%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.2%3-18.2%3-24.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-012.6%4+-112.7%4+-26.4%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.9% 69.4% 1.44 +10.7%

Draw 13.4% 22.2% 4.50 -39.7%

Away win 9.7% 17.9% 5.60 -45.7%

Over 2.5 75.8% 74.1% 1.35 +2.3%

Over 3.5 56.1% 54.1% 1.85 +3.8%

BTTS 60.2% 70.4% 1.42 -14.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 82%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.2%

H 77% / xG 3.0-1.0 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 2–0 8.3%

#3 3–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 8.2%

#5 4–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boreham Wood3.0

Sutton Utd1.0

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.8% · O3.5 PROB 56.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BOREHAM WOOD · PPG 2.27

SUTTON UTD · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.27), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Boreham Wood (H) 76.9%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV +10.7%

Draw 13.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -39.7%

Sutton Utd (A) 9.7%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -45.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boreham Wood face Sutton Utd in England - National League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boreham Wood a 77% chance, the draw 13% and Sutton Utd 10%, so Boreham Wood are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Boreham Wood and 1.0 for Sutton Utd (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boreham Wood are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.00 for Sutton Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Boreham Wood vs Sutton Utd Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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