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Aldershot Town vs Truro City Prediction— England - National League

Regular Season - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Aldershot Town

PPG 0.95 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Truro City

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-14.8%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.5%1-19.7%1-25.0%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.6%3-16.8%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-15.6%4+-22.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.0% 56.5% 1.77 +8.0%

Draw 20.8% 28.2% 3.55 -26.2%

Away win 18.2% 25.6% 3.90 -29.0%

Over 2.5 59.2% 59.9% 1.67 -1.1%

Over 3.5 36.8% 37.7% 2.65 -2.5%

BTTS 55.7% 63.7% 1.57 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.7%

H 61% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 9.7%

#3 1–1 9.7%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aldershot Town2.0

Truro City1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ALDERSHOT TOWN · PPG 0.95

TRURO CITY · PPG 0.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.95) > Away POOR (0.45)

Win probability 1X2

Aldershot Town (H) 61.0%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV +8.0%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -26.2%

Truro City (A) 18.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -29.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aldershot Town face Truro City in England - National League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aldershot Town a 61% chance, the draw 21% and Truro City 18%, so Aldershot Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Aldershot Town and 1.0 for Truro City (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aldershot Town are averaging 0.95 points per game versus 0.45 for Truro City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Aldershot Town vs Truro City Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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