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Aldershot Town vs Truro City Prediction— England - National League

England - National League logo England flag England - National League Regular Season - 46 EBB Stadium at Recreation Ground· Aldershot Saturday, April 25, 2026 11:30
Aldershot Town logo Aldershot Town PPG 0.95
0-2 MISS
Truro City logo Truro City PPG 0.45
Home· +8.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Aldershot Town face Truro City in England - National League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aldershot Town a 61% chance, the draw 21% and Truro City 18%, so Aldershot Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Aldershot Town and 1.0 for Truro City (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aldershot Town are averaging 0.95 points per game versus 0.45 for Truro City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 61.0%
Odds: 1.77 EV: +8.0%
Draw 20.8%
Odds: 3.55 EV: -26.2%
Away 18.2%
Odds: 3.90 EV: -29.0%
Model lean: Home
Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.2% Odds: 1.67 -1.1%
Over 3.5 36.8% Odds: 2.65 -2.5%
BTTS 55.7% Odds: 1.57 -12.6%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1
2nd 2-0
3rd 1-1
4th 1-0
5th 3-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Aldershot Town
2.05
Truro City
1.02

Model Suggestion

Home +8.0% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.95) > Away POOR (0.45)

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