Aldershot Town vs Southend Utd Prediction— England - National League

England - National League Tuesday, April 14, 2026 18:45

Aldershot Town PPG 1.00

0-2 HIT CS3

Southend Utd PPG 1.45

Away· -1.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Aldershot Town face Southend Utd in England - National League on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aldershot Town a 24% chance, the draw 22% and Southend Utd 55%, so Southend Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Aldershot Town and 2.0 for Southend Utd (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aldershot Town are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.45 for Southend Utd. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 23.5%

Odds: 3.75 EV: -11.9%

Draw 21.5%

Odds: 3.55 EV: -23.7%

Away 55.0%

Odds: 1.80 EV: -1.0%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 63.3% Odds: 1.50 -5.1%

Over 3.5 41.1% Odds: 2.20 -9.6%

BTTS 61.8% Odds: 1.44 -11.0%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-2 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 0-2 ✔

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 1-3 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Aldershot Town

1.25

Southend Utd

2.01

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -5.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -5.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.45)