Today / England - National League / Aldershot Town vs Southend Utd

Aldershot Town vs Southend Utd Prediction— England - National League

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:45

Aldershot Town

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Southend Utd

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-17.7%0-27.7%0-35.2%0-4+4.2%1 1-04.8%1-19.6%1-29.7%1-36.5%1-4+5.2%2 2-03.0%2-16.0%2-26.1%2-34.1%2-4+3.2%3 3-01.2%3-12.5%3-22.5%3-31.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.5% 26.7% 3.75 -11.9%

Draw 21.5% 28.2% 3.55 -23.7%

Away win 55.0% 55.6% 1.80 -1.0%

Over 2.5 63.3% 66.7% 1.50 -5.1%

Over 3.5 41.1% 45.5% 2.20 -9.6%

BTTS 61.8% 69.4% 1.44 -11.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob61.8%

A 55% / xG 1.3-2.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.7%

#2 1–1 9.6%

#3 0–2✓ 7.7%

#4 0–1 7.7%

#5 1–3 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aldershot Town1.3

Southend Utd2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ALDERSHOT TOWN · PPG 1.00

SOUTHEND UTD · PPG 1.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.45)

Win probability 1X2

Aldershot Town (H) 23.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.9%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -23.7%

Southend Utd (A) 55.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aldershot Town face Southend Utd in England - National League on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aldershot Town a 24% chance, the draw 22% and Southend Utd 55%, so Southend Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Aldershot Town and 2.0 for Southend Utd (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aldershot Town are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.45 for Southend Utd. This match finished 0-2.

Aldershot Town vs Southend Utd Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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