Chesterfield vs Grimsby Prediction— England - League Two

England - League Two Regular Season - 40 SMH Group Stadium· Chesterfield Tuesday, April 14, 2026 18:45

Chesterfield PPG 1.67

2-1 HIT CS2

Grimsby PPG 1.58

Over3.5· +30.6% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Chesterfield face Grimsby in England - League Two on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chesterfield a 47% chance, the draw 23% and Grimsby 30%, so Chesterfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Chesterfield and 1.4 for Grimsby (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chesterfield are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.58 for Grimsby. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 46.8%

Odds: 2.54 EV: +18.9%

Draw 22.8%

Odds: 3.35 EV: -23.6%

Away 30.4%

Odds: 2.65 EV: -19.4%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 63.0% Odds: 1.85 +16.6%

Over 3.5 40.8% Odds: 3.20 +30.6%

BTTS 63.7% Odds: 1.65 +5.1%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✔

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 2-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Chesterfield

1.82

Grimsby

1.43

Model SuggestionBTTS +5.1% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+30.6%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5/Under 51%

BTTS/No 61%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -16.4%

Bet Hit 44% (18 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.58)