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Chesterfield vs Grimsby Prediction— England - League Two

Regular Season - 40 ·Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:45

Chesterfield

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Grimsby

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.6%0-24.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.1%1-110.1%1-27.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.9%3-15.6%3-24.0%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.8%4+-22.7%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 39.4% 2.54 +18.9%

Draw 22.8% 29.9% 3.35 -23.6%

Away win 30.4% 37.7% 2.65 -19.4%

Over 2.5 63.0% 54.1% 1.85 +16.6%

Over 3.5 40.8% 31.3% 3.20 +30.6%

BTTS 63.7% 60.6% 1.65 +5.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.7%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1✓ 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 1–0 7.1%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chesterfield1.8

Grimsby1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHESTERFIELD · PPG 1.67

GRIMSBY · PPG 1.58

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.58)

Win probability 1X2

Chesterfield (H) 46.8%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV +18.9%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -23.6%

Grimsby (A) 30.4%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chesterfield face Grimsby in England - League Two on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chesterfield a 47% chance, the draw 23% and Grimsby 30%, so Chesterfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Chesterfield and 1.4 for Grimsby (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chesterfield are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.58 for Grimsby. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Chesterfield vs Grimsby Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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