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Crawley Town vs Salford City Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Crawley Town

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Salford City

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-111.4%0-27.6%0-33.3%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.7%1-112.9%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.5%2-17.2%2-24.8%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.0%3-12.7%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% 28.6% 3.50 +4.0%

Draw 31.0% 27.4% 3.65 +13.2%

Away win 39.3% 50.8% 1.97 -22.6%

Over 2.5 44.3% 55.6% 1.80 -20.3%

Over 3.5 23.1% 33.3% 3.00 -30.7%

BTTS 51.5% 59.9% 1.67 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.5%

D 31% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 44% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0✓ 8.6%

#3 0–1 11.4%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Crawley Town1.1

Salford City1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 23.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CRAWLEY TOWN · PPG 1.09

SALFORD CITY · PPG 1.55

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

57%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.09) vs Away GOOD (1.55)

Win probability 1X2

Crawley Town (H) 29.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +4.0%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +13.2%

Salford City (A) 39.3%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Crawley Town face Salford City in England - League Two on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crawley Town a 30% chance, the draw 31% and Salford City 39%, so Salford City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Crawley Town and 1.3 for Salford City (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crawley Town are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.55 for Salford City. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Crawley Town vs Salford City Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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