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Barrow vs Newport Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Barrow

PPG 0.86 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Newport

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-19.4%0-25.8%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.3%1-112.6%1-27.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.9%2-18.4%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.1%3-13.8%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 33.8% 2.96 +10.7%

Draw 30.3% 30.8% 3.25 -1.5%

Away win 32.2% 42.6% 2.35 -24.3%

Over 2.5 47.3% 47.6% 2.10 -0.7%

Over 3.5 25.6% 26.0% 3.85 -1.4%

BTTS 54.0% 54.6% 1.83 -1.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.0%

D 30% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.7%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 1–2✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barrow1.3

Newport1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.3% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BARROW · PPG 0.86

NEWPORT · PPG 0.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.86), Away POOR (0.82)

Win probability 1X2

Barrow (H) 37.4%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV +10.7%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -1.5%

Newport (A) 32.2%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -24.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barrow face Newport in England - League Two on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barrow a 37% chance, the draw 30% and Newport 32%, so Barrow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Barrow and 1.2 for Newport (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barrow are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.82 for Newport. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Barrow vs Newport Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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