Gillingham vs Shrewsbury Prediction— England - League Two

England - League Two Regular Season - 46 Priestfield Stadium· Gillingham Saturday, May 2, 2026 14:00

Gillingham PPG 1.27

1-0 HIT CS4

Shrewsbury PPG 0.73

Away· +8.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Gillingham face Shrewsbury in England - League Two on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gillingham a 42% chance, the draw 30% and Shrewsbury 28%, so Gillingham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Gillingham and 1.2 for Shrewsbury (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gillingham are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.73 for Shrewsbury. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 42.3%

Odds: 1.96 EV: -17.1%

Draw 29.6%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -2.3%

Away 28.1%

Odds: 3.85 EV: +8.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 48.7% Odds: 2.10 +2.3%

Over 3.5 26.9% Odds: 3.80 +2.2%

BTTS 54.6% Odds: 1.83 -0.1%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✔

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Gillingham

1.46

Shrewsbury

1.16

Model SuggestionBTTS -0.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -0.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+8.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.27) > Away POOR (0.73)