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Gillingham vs Shrewsbury Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Gillingham

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Shrewsbury

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.4%0-24.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.6%1-112.3%1-27.1%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-19.0%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.8%3-14.4%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.3% 51.0% 1.96 -17.1%

Draw 29.6% 30.3% 3.30 -2.3%

Away win 28.1% 26.0% 3.85 +8.2%

Over 2.5 48.7% 47.6% 2.10 +2.3%

Over 3.5 26.9% 26.3% 3.80 +2.2%

BTTS 54.6% 54.6% 1.83 -0.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 1–0✓ 10.6%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gillingham1.5

Shrewsbury1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GILLINGHAM · PPG 1.27

SHREWSBURY · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.27) > Away POOR (0.73)

Win probability 1X2

Gillingham (H) 42.3%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -17.1%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.3%

Shrewsbury (A) 28.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gillingham face Shrewsbury in England - League Two on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gillingham a 42% chance, the draw 30% and Shrewsbury 28%, so Gillingham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Gillingham and 1.2 for Shrewsbury (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gillingham are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.73 for Shrewsbury. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Gillingham vs Shrewsbury Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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