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Harrogate vs Barnet Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Harrogate

PPG 0.68 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Barnet

PPG 1.68 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-112.7%0-29.2%0-34.5%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.6%1-112.5%1-29.1%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.2%2-16.1%2-24.5%2-32.2%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.4%3-12.0%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% 40.3% 2.48 -41.5%

Draw 30.2% 27.0% 3.70 +11.7%

Away win 46.1% 39.7% 2.52 +16.2%

Over 2.5 43.9% 60.6% 1.65 -27.6%

Over 3.5 22.9% 37.7% 2.65 -39.3%

BTTS 49.8% 65.4% 1.53 -23.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob49.8%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 12.7%

#3 0–0 8.8%

#4 0–2 9.2%

#5 1–2✓ 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Harrogate1.0

Barnet1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.9% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HARROGATE · PPG 0.68

BARNET · PPG 1.68

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

50%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.68) vs Home POOR (0.68)

Win probability 1X2

Harrogate (H) 23.6%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -41.5%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +11.7%

Barnet (A) 46.1%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV +16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Harrogate face Barnet in England - League Two on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Harrogate a 24% chance, the draw 30% and Barnet 46%, so Barnet are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Harrogate and 1.5 for Barnet (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Harrogate are averaging 0.68 points per game versus 1.68 for Barnet. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Harrogate vs Barnet Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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