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Fleetwood vs Milton Keynes Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Fleetwood

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Milton Keynes

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 56.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-110.0%0-27.8%0-34.1%0-4+2.3%1 1-07.6%1-111.8%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.5%2-17.0%2-25.5%2-32.9%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.8%3-12.8%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.1% 25.6% 3.90 +5.7%

Draw 28.5% 27.0% 3.70 +5.5%

Away win 44.4% 54.3% 1.84 -18.3%

Over 2.5 52.0% 54.1% 1.85 -3.8%

Over 3.5 29.8% 32.3% 3.10 -7.6%

BTTS 56.8% 57.8% 1.73 -1.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob56.8%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.8%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 10.0%

#4 0–0 6.4%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fleetwood1.2

Milton Keynes1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FLEETWOOD · PPG 1.45

MILTON KEYNES · PPG 1.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

58%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.45) vs Away GOOD (1.82)

Win probability 1X2

Fleetwood (H) 27.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +5.7%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +5.5%

Milton Keynes (A) 44.4%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fleetwood face Milton Keynes in England - League Two on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fleetwood a 27% chance, the draw 28% and Milton Keynes 44%, so Milton Keynes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Fleetwood and 1.6 for Milton Keynes (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fleetwood are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.82 for Milton Keynes. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Fleetwood vs Milton Keynes Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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