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Notts County vs Bristol Rovers Prediction— England - League Two

Regular Season - 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Notts County

PPG 1.91 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bristol Rovers

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.5%0-23.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.6%1-111.3%1-26.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.7%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.2%3-15.6%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 58.8% 1.70 -13.1%

Draw 27.2% 25.0% 4.00 +8.8%

Away win 21.7% 23.1% 4.33 -6.0%

Over 2.5 52.8% 60.6% 1.65 -12.9%

Over 3.5 30.6% 38.5% 2.60 -20.4%

BTTS 55.6% 61.7% 1.62 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Notts County1.7

Bristol Rovers1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NOTTS COUNTY · PPG 1.91

BRISTOL ROVERS · PPG 1.09

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.91) vs P(Home)=51.1%

Win probability 1X2

Notts County (H) 51.1%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -13.1%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +8.8%

Bristol Rovers (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Notts County face Bristol Rovers in England - League Two on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Notts County a 51% chance, the draw 27% and Bristol Rovers 22%, so Notts County are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Notts County and 1.1 for Bristol Rovers (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Notts County are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.09 for Bristol Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Notts County vs Bristol Rovers Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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